Tag Archives: home prices

Lower oil prices could boost home values in the Northeast and Midwest

9 Jan

The Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor are the earliest leading indicators of housing price and rent trends nationally and locally. They adjust for the changing mix of listed homes and show what’s really happening to asking prices and rents. Asking prices lead sales prices by approximately two or more months. As a result, the Monitors reveal trends before other price indexes do. Here then is the scoop on where prices and rents are headed.

Trulia looked at year-over-year trends in oil prices, jobs, and home prices from 1980 to the present in the 100 largest metros and found that:

  1. In oil-producing markets, home prices tend to follow oil prices, but with a lag. For instance, in the 1980s, the largest year-over-year oil price declines were in early- and mid-1986. In Houston, job losses were steepest in late 1986. But home prices didn’t slide most until the third quarter of 1987. Since 1980, employment in oil-producing markets has followed oil-price movements roughly two quarters later and home prices have followed oil-price movements roughly two years later.
  2. While home prices and oil prices move in the same direction in oil-producing markets, they tend to move in the opposite direction in many other markets. Cheaper oil lowers the costs of driving, heating a home, and other activities, boosting local economies outside oil-producing regions. In the Northeast and Midwest especially, home prices tend to rise after oil prices fall. The specific markets where home prices get the biggest jolt depend on which years we analyze.

This history offers three lessons for today’s housing market. First, any negative impact of falling oil prices on home prices should be concentrated in oil-producing markets in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and other places with large oil-related industries. Second, in these markets, oil prices won’t tank home prices immediately. Rather, falling oil prices in the second half of 2014 might not have their biggest impact on home prices until late 2015 or in 2016. Third, falling oil prices will probably help local economies and home prices in markets that lack oil-related industries.

Read the full report here:


Home Price Increase Reported By FHFA

2 Jun

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices increased 1.3 percent over the first three months of the year on a seasonally-adjusted basis for the purchase-only market.

“Although the first quarter saw relatively weak real estate transaction activity—in part due to seasonal factors—home prices continued to push higher in the first quarter,” said Andrew Leventis, principal economist for FHFA, with the release of the agency’s House Price Index.

Leventis cites the “modest inventories of homes available for sale” as a major factor in the first-quarter increase.

While the rose 1.3 percent over the quarter, first-quarter prices were 6.6 percent higher than prices recorded in the first quarter of last year, according to FHFA. This compares to just 0.8 percent growth in the price of other goods and services.

When adjusted for inflation, first-quarter home prices are 5.7 percent higher than they were one year ago.

Home prices rose in 42 states and the District of Columbia over the first quarter of the year.

On an annual basis, only one state posted a price decline over the year in March—Vermont, with a 1.24 percent decline.

Nevada ranked highest for annual price appreciation in March, with a 20.96 percent rise. The District of Columbia (19.78 percent) ranked second, followed by California (15.78 percent), Arizona (14.72 percent), and Florida (10.65 percent).

Among the nine Census divisions, FHFA noted “substantive decelerations” in prices over the past year in the two divisions that posted the greatest price gains over the previous year.

FHFA also tracks “distress-free” home prices in 12 large metros, which excludes sales of bank-owned properties and short sales. In nine of the 12, the distress-free index reported lower price appreciation than the traditional purchase-only indexes.

The agency’s index came out the same day as the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices [3], which showed prices up 12.4 percent in 20 of the nation’s biggest markets—a slight cut from a 12.9 percent increase recorded in February.

Article adapted from DSNews.com    Read the article here:


Home Values See Increase

3 May

adapted from Reverse Mortgage Daily April 30, 2013

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rise Near 10%, Best Showing since 2006.

Home prices rose nearly 10% national on a year-over-year basis according to the latest reading from the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.


Prices showed an uptick of 8.6% year-over-year in February for Case-Shiller’s 10-city composite index and 9.3% for its 20-city composite index, indicating a home price recovery is holding strong.


“Home prices continue to show solid increases across all 20 cities,” said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded their highest annual growth rates since May 2006; seasonally adjusted monthly data show all 20 cities saw higher prices for two months in a row – the last time that happened was in early 2005.”


Prices rose slightly from January to February with the 10- and 20-city indexes showing a .4% and .3% uptick, respectively. Regionally, Phoenix represented a standout market with 23% year-over-year growth while Atlanta and Dallas had the highest annual growth rates in the history of the index.


“Phoenix, San Francisco, Las Vegas and Atlanta were the four cities with the highest year-over-year price increases,” Blitzer said. “Atlanta recovered from a wave of foreclosures in 2012 while the other three were among the hardest hit in the housing collapse. At the other end of the rankings, three older cities – New York, Boston and Chicago – saw the smallest year-over-year price improvements.”


The data indicates housing is still on the upswing, despite mixed signals among multifamily indicators.