Tag Archives: Real estate pricing


22 Jun

Home values rose in May month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter, but fell on a yearly basis, according to Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports.   The upside to the yearly decline is it’s the smallest year-over-year drop since October 2007.

In the New York Metro area, the monthly gain was 0.3%, quarterly gain was 0.5%, but the year-over-year values were down 3.3 %.

Sale prices rose in the NY area as well, up 1.2% month-over-month, 2.3% for the quarter although for the year there was a drop of 4.7%.

The number of foreclosures dropped in May, with 6.3 out of every 10,000 homes being foreclosed nationwide compared to 7.2 out of every 10,000 in April.

With such a slight increase in the picture, other analysts say we should not get too optimistic.

S & P Indices Press Release New York,May 29, 2012

29 May

 Pace of Decline in Home Prices Moderates as the First Quarter of 2012 Ends, According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

– Data through March 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three headline composites ended the first quarter of 2012 at new post-crisis lows. The national composite fell by 2.0% in the first quarter of 2012 and was down 1.9% versus the first quarter of 2011. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted respective annual returns of -2.8% and -2.6% in March 2012. Month-over-month, their changes were minimal; average home prices in the 10-City Composite fell by 0.1% compared to February and the 20-City remained basically unchanged in March over February. However, with these latest data, all three composites still posted their lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

In addition to the three composites, five cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Portland – also saw average home prices hit new lows. This is an improvement over the nine cities reported last month. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, posted a 1.9% decline in the first quarter of 2012 over the first quarter of 2011. In March 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual rates of decline of 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively.

see the full report at http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&blobcol=urldocumentfile&blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=content-type&blobwhere=1245334287526&blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&blobnocache=true

S&P Case-Shiller Index of Home Values Drops, Home Sales Rise

5 Mar

According to numbers released last week for 2011 year-end home prices, U.S. home prices fell in December from a month earlier, ending 2011 at the lowest levels since the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

The report is the most widely-cited, private-sector metric for the housing market. The index aims to measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities and nationwide.

During the fourth quarter, home prices reached new lows, falling 3.8% sequentially and 4% year-to-year. Prices are down 33.8% from their peak in the second quarter of 2006.

“While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. “After a prior three years of accelerated decline, the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized.”

The housing market remains sluggish despite soft prices and interest rates that have been hovering around historic lows. A weak job market, abundant foreclosures and tighter mortgage requirements have continued to weigh on the market.

Of the 20 major U.S. metropolitan markets, 18 reported prices were lower than during November. Only Miami and Phoenix moved higher, up a scant 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Year-to-year, only Detroit saw improvement, up 0.5%.

The Case-Shiller index of 10 major metropolitan areas and the 20-city index were down 1.1% in December from a month earlier.

Year-to-year, unadjusted December prices declined 3.9% for the 10 major markets while the 20-city index dropped 4%.

On a brighter note, The National Association of Realtors last week reported that sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in January to the highest level in nearly two years and the inventory of unsold homes contracted to a level considered healthy by economists. Existing-home sales increased 4.3% in January from December.

Point to Ponder: The Impact The Job Market Has On The Housing Market

10 Feb

Being unemployed, under-employed, or afraid of losing a job is never easy. One of the first things many people do is minimize their spending. Certainly, the last thing on their minds is making a major purchase like a house.

Here are three key points that shed light on specific ways that the labor market influences the housing market.

Home Prices: A more secure employment market can help home prices stabilize, as fewer people are at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure. In addition, improvements in the labor market often open the door for more first-time homebuyers to join the ranks of homeowners. This can eventually help home prices improve.

Home Size: When someone is paid a good salary, one of the things they often think about doing is purchasing a larger home.

Home Location: When the labor market is thriving, an employer may even have to lure in people who live outside the local area to take a job. This is one of the reasons housing markets are so localized. One state, city, or community might have a much better job market than a neighboring one. That’s why it’s very important to understand the labor situation in your own state and city in order to really get a feel for the health of the housing market there.

The bottom line to remember in 2012 is that all real estate markets are local…and that means that there can be enormous variations across the country. In areas where employment is struggling, the housing market may continue to struggle as well. But employment is improving in many parts of the country, which also means the housing market in those areas will follow suit.

Stability Forecast for 2012 Housing Market

18 Jan

While year-over-year home price measurements notched down in 2011, prices are expected to see a slight uptick in 2012, according to Clear Capital home market indices. Should the valuation company’s predictions ring true, it would be the first time since 2006 that the change in annual home prices has landed in positive territory.

Data released by Clear Capital on January 9 shows year-over-year, national home prices were down 2.1 percent in 2011. The company says movement in home prices began to stabilize somewhat during the latter half of the year and REO sales as a percentage of total home sales began to decline, which helped to moderate depreciation for the year overall.

In 2012, Clear Capital is forecasting U.S. home prices to show continued stabilization with a slight gain of 0.2 percent across all markets. That would put national home prices near levels not seen since 2001.

“Overall, 2011 was a relatively quiet year for U.S. home prices compared to the last five years,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “With national prices down a little more than two percent for the year and sitting at their lowest point since 2001, our projections show that the current balance the market has found will continue through 2012.”

According to Clear Capital, the importance of micro-market analysis becomes plainly apparent as the 2012 forecast is for a flat U.S. market, but only 40 percent of individual markets (20 of 50) are projected to be stable.

Individual markets reacting to their local economic drivers will exhibit a wide range of performance levels, Dr. Villacorta explained.

When looking at distinct metro market areas, it turns out only 24 percent showed signs of stabilization in 2011, while the others are still moving more dramatically higher or lower, Villacorta explained.

“What’s most interesting is that the lower segments of appreciating markets are driving much of the current price growth,” Villacorta said. “In places like Florida, which have historically been hard hit, we are now seeing considerable activity in lower-end properties as demand continues to heat up.”

Clear Capital’s report shows U.S. prices declined 0.4 percent in December on a quarter-over-quarter basis as markets gave back some of the gains of the summer buying season.

December’s quarterly assessment is the first cooling off after six monthly reports from Clear Capital showed minimal quarterly gains. In fact, the company says the most recent six months of the year saw national home prices flat, posting a decline of just 0.1 percent over the second half of 2011.

The 2.1 percent price decline over 2011 marked the smallest year-end change in either direction since the market gained 1.7 percent in 2006, according to Clear Capital.

Regional trends revealed a bit more price variability. The Northeast’s meager 0.1 percent yearly gain led the nation, comparing favorably to declines of 1.3 percent, 3.0 percent, and 4.4 percent turned in by the South, Midwest, and West, respectively.

While changes in prices across the U.S. were mild for 2011, there were notable extremes at the positive and negative sides of the market, Clear Capital says.

Four metros posted price declines greater than 10 percent. Atlanta, Georgia, led the way with 18.3 percent shaved off its home values in 2011, followed by Seattle, Washington, which posted a 15.1 percent annual decline. Birmingham, Alabama, and Detroit, Michigan, also rode the markets down with 11.1 percent and 10.8 percent price drops, respectively.

On the positive side, Dayton, Ohio, enjoyed 11.5 percent annual price growth in 2011. The next two strongest performers came from Florida, with Orlando and Miami laying claim to 6.7 percent and 5.6 percent price gains, respectively.

Each of the markets with double digit declines saw an increase in the percentage of sales that were REOs, while declines in REO saturation helped buoy the top performing markets to positive price growth in 2011.

Nationally, Clear Capital says REO saturation reached a new yearly low at the end of 2011 at 24.8 percent.

Clear Capital expects 2012 to play out much like the last half of 2011, with only a very subtle price change at the national level. A minimal decline in the beginning of the year is expected to turn into a meager gain by year’s end, the company explained.

At a more granular level, half of the 50 major metro markets included in Clear Capital’s study are expected to post gains for the year, with individual metros experiencing the full gamut of price movement, from double-digit growth to double-digit drops.


28 Sep

According to the most recent Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (the leading measure of U.S. home prices) released September 27,  the 20-city Metropolitan Statistical Areas, or MSAs, show a fourth month of sustained growth.

This is far from indicating real recovery, but it is a step in the right direction and a speck of optimism on the horizon of those of us in the real estate and mortgage business.

The table below summarizes the results for July 2011. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 24 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com


National Home Price Index Up In 2nd Q But Still Down Year-Over-Year

31 Aug


The U.S National Home Price Index increased 3.6% in the second quarter of 2011, but the index is still posting a decline of 5.9% over the same period last year.

As CBS News reported last night, average home prices are at a level comparable to 2003 levels across the nation.  With prices and mortgage interest rates so low, they asked, why aren’t people buying?

The answer seems to lie in the difficulty people are having in securing a loan.  Qualifying credit scores required for many lenders have jumped by 100 points.  Well qualified, buyers, however, should overcome their fear of the market and purchase their dream home at a price that is now within reach.

Buyers over age 62 should look into a reverse mortgage (HECM For Purchase).  No income or credit qualifications are currently required. 

Call Karen at Tradition Title Agency today for the name of an experienced loan officer who can help with any type of financing.